Tonight’s the night, everyone! A couple of weeks ago, we gave you our opinions on the twelve songs competing for this year’s JESC title, and this morning, with less than seven hours to go until the event, we have a quick set of predictions for you! Who do you think will walk away with this year’s trophy? Read on to find out what we think, and see if we agree with you!
We’ve already told you who we would like to do well – combined, it looks like we are both fans of Ukraine and Sweden, with Rory enjoying Armenia and me having a soft spot for San Marino. However, our previous opinions were based solely on the studio versions of each song, and a couple of patchy NF performances here and there. Over the course of the last week, we have been privileged with numerous rehearsal videos which have given us all the chance to see exactly how each song is intended to look on stage – plus, the running of the jury final last night, where 50% of the score was collected, should give us some indication of the countries which should be set to do well tonight.
So, taking all this into account, here are our respective predictions for the final order of the 12, with justification of our views:
1 – The Netherlands
2 – Armenia
3 – San Marino
4 – Russia
5 – Belarus
6 – Ukraine
7 – Malta
8 – Sweden
9 – Macedonia
10 – Azerbaijan
11 – Georgia
12 – Moldova
In such a small field, predicting the exact placing is so unbelievably difficult, as you’ll know if you’ve attempted to do just that. I could see any one of the top eight there finishing first, and any one of the bottom eight crashing into last place. The final table will likely turn out looking nothing like that, if previous contests are anything to go by. I think I have definitely let my personal opinion interfere with some of these rankings, but let me just explain them a little.
Netherlands as the winners – primarily because they’re on late, it is a VERY child-friendly song, and it’s often those *types* which tend to have the universal appeal at the Junior contest. Of course, everyone will now be clamouring to disagree, brandishing Anastasiya Petryk’s dark dubstep-esque “Nebo” as a witness for the prosecution, however in a very tight field, this is the one song which I could plausibly see just squeaking ahead.
Armenia, you know I’m not the biggest fan of that song, but she is singing about chocolate. And the kids will vote for that. Unfortunately. Similar for San Marino, I think people have been understating how catchy this is. Yes, it’s dated, but may I just highlight Georgia 2011? That was as 70s as they come, yet the entire continent inexplicably bought into it. Plus, the fact it’s San Marino may trigger something of a sympathy vote from any actual Eurovision fans who may be calling tonight.
Russia, Belarus, Ukraine. I like them all. I think they’ll all do *reasonably* well. I can’t call it any further than that, really. Hence why they’re all together mid-table. As for that HIDEOUS concoction of noise from Malta, I would love to see this in last place, but something tells me that this is gonna do an Anouk and annoy the hell out of me as country after country awards it an unnecessarily large number of points *sigh*.
Sweden, as always, will probably be considered too adult, and his vocals are ropey. Sorry, Elias, you know I love your song. Take solace in that. As for Macedonia, her live performance is incredibly strong, and I’ve gone from predicting this one as 12th to 9th, owing to her strong jury performance. Aside from that, dated, unfortunately. Azerbaijan and Georgia, I would LOVE to see crash, and with their apathetic contributions this year, I think that’s incredibly likely. And then poor little Rafael from Moldova. It pains me to say it… but NOBODY is gonna vote for that, are they. Bless him.
So to sum up: basically, as long as it’s not Malta or Georgia, I’m happy.
1 – Russia – The most overrated song in the contest this year, Russia is bound to get a really good placing, whether they have a great song or not. ‘Mechtay’ is indeed a great song indeed and Dayana is a fantastic singer, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if they won, but I can see them doing extremely well. If she, Monica or Barbara won, that would be amazing! GO EVERYONE!!
2 – Ukraine – The home country did pick a really good song to send to represent themselves and if her vocals are just as good as they were; both in the studio and in the national final, she’s almost destined to get a great placing – maybe even win the whole thing!
3 – Malta – Because the song is a great ballad, it will obviously do well with the jury and the girl has a big voice and the fact that it’s typical Junior Eurovision, it will do well, I can tell!
4 – Sweden – Along with Macedonia, Sweden is the underdog of this year’s competition, but unlike Barbara, Elias is going to do much better I think. Hopefully, the public enjoy the song, even though he’s opening the show. I hope he gets a good placing, because the song is actually really good; one of Sweden’s best songs in a few years. Go Elias go!
5 – Belarus – If Ilya’s vocals hold up well on the night, we may be looking at a possible winner here, but the fact that some people aren’t a fan of the song may affect their position. Hopefully, he’ll get a good position, because it’s what they deserve!
6 – Azerbaijan – Some people will like the song and some other people will loathe it. I can see it doing pretty well with the jury, and it may gather a few more votes than they did last year, so it could go either way, like Armenia. I’m interested in seeing how well it does, because it’s very much a love/hate song
7 – Netherlands – For me, this would probably become the fanwank of the contest. either the juries would love it and the public will hate it and vice versa. The staging is probably the best of the group, but the vocals could let them down.
8 – San Marino – This is like the same sort of story with Armenia – it might do incredibly well or it might flop horribly and judging by the campness of his performance, I’m gonna say that it’s the latter. Good try though San Marino!
9 – Armenia – As much as I love the song, it’s incredibly likely it won’t do well.. although CANDY won in 2011, so it could go either way. I hope they would do well though!
10 – Georgia – This is something I think very few people like. Some people may vote for it and if there’s a jury this year, they’ll get a few points, but apart from them, I don’t seem them doing that well.
11 – Macedonia – Even though I consider it to be a dark horse, I don’t think it’ll do very well, due to the fact that both the backing track and her voice don’t exactly mix well. She could surprise me, but chances are likely she’ll flop. It’s a shame because she’s a great singer live!
12 – Moldova – People will find the song boring and just not vote for it, I can almost see it. I’ve watched loads of tops from the fans, and Rafael has been put at the bottom of every top.. I think this place is almost guaranteed.
For argument’s sake, if we are to combine me and Rory’s predicted rankings like we did in the previous JESC article, we come up with the following:
1 – Russia
2 – Netherlands
3 – Ukraine
4 – Malta
5 – Belarus
6 – Armenia
7 – San Marino
8 – Sweden
9 – Azerbaijan
10 – Macedonia
11 – Georgia
12 – Moldova
Remember, this year, the top three will be honoured in a similar way to the ceremonies used in the Olympics and other such international sporting competitions. Therefore, we predict that the three countries most likely to occupy the top places are Russia, the Netherlands and Ukraine! Whilst our individual lists did contain some odd results, when we combine them, we’ve ended up with something that – to my eyes at least – looks very possible! But how about you?
David Christley from the Netherlands: I think Russia will win! But The Netherlands song I think is going to appeal to the kids!
Nadine Glöck from Germany: I hope the Netherlands, I think San Marino
Milena Stjerne from Denmark: San Marinooooo 😀